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美国著名的彭博社报道：
Obama Is Safest Bet Now and in 2012 Versus Romney, Gamblers Say
By Robin Stringer
Nov. 1 (Bloomberg) -- ``Obama Defeats Romney.''
British and Irish oddsmakers are so certain Democratic Senator Barack Obama will beat Republican John McCain next week they're already predicting that sort of a headline on Nov. 6, 2012, the day of the next U.S. presidential election.
Paddy Power Plc, which said two weeks ago it was already paying out on bets Obama will be elected Nov. 4, has the Illinois senator at 4-6 odds for winning again four years from now. That means a 6-pound ($9.70) bet will reap a profit of 4 pounds. The odds for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, the second-most-likely winner of that contest, are 7-1.
``Presuming Obama gets there, and he makes it all the way through, then it seems to be his to lose'' in 2012, said Paddy Power, a spokesman and son of the founder of the Dublin-based company, by telephone yesterday.
Democratic Senator Hillary Clinton of New York is third at 8-1; Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, McCain's running mate, follows at 9-1. McCain, the Arizona senator, is fifth. Clinton was among the Democratic candidates Obama beat for his party's nomination. Romney lost out to McCain.
Rival gambling company William Hill Plc of London also favors a 2012 Obama win, at even odds, followed by Clinton and Romney. McCain is tied in fourth place with Democratic Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana at 10-1. Palin is a 12-1 bet.
Electoral Vote `Landslide'
``America doesn't like losers,'' said Rupert Adams, a spokesman for William Hill, of McCain's and Palin's prospects should they fall short in next week's vote. ``John Kerry was the second-most famous man in the States, then suddenly, off the radar,'' after losing the 2004 election to President George W. Bush.
Betting on Electoral College votes favors a ``landslide'' victory for Obama next week, Adams said. William Hill has set 7- 4 odds that Obama will take 370 or more electoral votes, more than the 270 needed for victory.
Another indicator of likely outcomes, besides polls, is the futures market. The Iowa Exchange Market, operated by the University of Iowa, has traded political futures for the last 20 years for education and research.
Traders on that exchange give the Democratic candidate an 86 percent chance of victory next week in the ``winner take all'' market.
Political-prediction markets began as early as 1850 and operated on Wall Street from 1880-1944, said Koleman S. Strumpf, a professor of economics at the University of Kansas in Lawrence, in a telephone interview yesterday.
Market's Accuracy
The growing popularity of polling and the proliferation of thoroughbred racing as an alternative gambling option caused it to fade out, Strumpf said.
The Iowa futures market was more accurate than polls in predicting election outcomes from 1988 to 2004, according to a study by researchers at the University of Iowa's Henry B. Tippie College of Business published this year.
The study examined 964 public-opinion polls for each election since 1988, and found the exchange was closer to the actual outcome 74 percent of the time when compared with polls taken more than 100 days before an election. Five days before elections, the market was more accurate 68 percent of the time, the report said.
Only twice in the century through 2004 -- the 1916 election and the 2000 contest between Bush and Democrat Al Gore -- did the betting markets get it wrong on the popular vote, according to the Iowa exchange.
Winner Take All
With futures, an investor doesn't have to wait for the event to profit. In June 2006, traders who bought contracts that would be worth $1 each if the Democrats won in 2008 would have paid about 50 cents a piece, meaning the market gave the party a 50 percent chance of prevailing. Such traders could have sold those contracts a year later for about 70 cents each, after the chances of a Democratic victory rose.
``It's been hovering for close to a month now at somewhere between 83 and 87'' percent for the Democratic candidate to be elected, said Tom Snee, a spokesman for the Iowa exchange, by telephone yesterday from Iowa City.
The value of the Democratic contract in the winner-take- all market hasn't dropped below that of the Republican option since trading opened in June 2006, he said.
A CBS News/New York Times poll this week showed Obama leading by 11 percentage points among likely voters. A separate Fox News poll showed Obama leading by only 3 points and McCain closing the gap.
The Fox poll of 1,100 registered voters was conducted Oct. 28-29 and had a margin of error of 3 percentage points. The CBS/New York Times poll surveyed 1,440 adults Oct. 25-29 and had the same margin of error.
Snee said there's an easy explanation for why futures markets tend to be more accurate than polls.
``We ask, who do you think will win? The polls ask, who are you planning to vote for?'' Snee said. ``When you're putting $500 down, you'll go more with your head than your heart.'' |
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发表于 2008-11-1 22:52
