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美国彭博社报道，看好奥巴马赢得美国大选。
Paddy Power Shows Obama Win as Bookie Takes on Rivals (Update2)
By Louisa Nesbitt
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Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Paddy Power Plc, the Irish bookmaker that paid out on bets predicting Barack Obama would secure the Democratic Party's presidential nomination, is now offering odds suggesting the Illinois senator will capture the White House.
The Dublin-based company is mixing wagers on the U.S. presidential race with sports to elevate its profile and profit as it vies with Britain's two biggest betting-shop owners, William Hill Plc and Ladbrokes Plc.
Ireland's largest bookmaker has about 60 shops in the U.K. and plans to double its network there in three years. That may add 9 euro cents (13 cents) to per-share earnings by 2009 and 15 cents by 2010, said Morgan Stanley's Vaughan Lewis, the top- ranked analyst in a Bloomberg survey based on his recommendations for the shares.
Paddy Power has ``good fundamentals -- I think they will outperform,'' said Andrew Ramsbottom, who helps manage 400 million euros ($590 million) of Irish stocks, including Paddy Power, at Tilney Investment Management in Liverpool.
The company will boost profit by 13 percent to 1.44 euros a share in 2008, based on estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The stock, which has dropped 29 percent this year, will rise 74 percent to 28 euros in the next 12 months, Lewis said.
Paddy Power fell 5 cents, or 0.3 percent, to 16.05 euros at in Dublin trading.
Obama Payout
The bookmaker said it was paying out 50,000 euros in January on bets predicting Obama would win the Democratic presidential nomination, five months before he wrested it from Hillary Clinton. It is now giving odds of 4-to-9 for Obama and 13-to-8 for John McCain winning the presidency.
Novelty wagers, including setting up a Web camera next to 10 eggs and taking bets on which would hatch first, have also garnered attention for the bookmaker.
Paddy Power has a ``unique presence in a crowded market,'' Morgan Stanley's Lewis said in a June 17 note as he raised his rating on the stock to ``equal weight.''
Revenue will grow 8 percent this year, faster than bigger competitor William Hill, based on analysts' estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
Special offers, such as giving money back when the horse a gambler is backing loses, could hurt the company's profit margins, said David Jennings, an analyst with investment firm Davy in Dublin. Paddy Power has started ``what is effectively a price war'' at its Irish stores and Internet unit, he said.
Online Gambling
Paddy Power's greater reliance on online gambling will help it take share from bigger competitors in the U.K., Jennings said. Internet betting accounts for about half of the bookmaker's operating profit, compared with less than a fifth for William Hill and Ladbrokes.
``The bookies in the U.K. have been pretty poor performers recently -- Paddy Power's certainly held up better than they have,'' Ramsbottom said. ``It's expanded well online.''
Bettors anywhere, apart from North America, can make wagers through Paddy Power's Web site, which also features Spanish- and German-language versions.
The company, which reports first-half results tomorrow, honed its business model in Ireland before expanding into the U.K., reducing its risks, Ramsbottom said.
Paddy Power is ``a straightforward betting shop'' that's ``more comfortable than the others,'' said Fred Moore, 80, as he placed bets at its Cannon Street shop in London. Moore said he turned away from William Hill after it paid out less prize money when a horse dropped out of a race on which he'd gambled.
Faltering Economy
As the Irish company expands into the U.K., local bookmakers are bolstering their overseas and Web units to counter slower growth in Britain.
The U.K. economy, which faltered in the second quarter, has led consumers to curb betting, according to Rank Group Plc, the country's second-largest bingo-club owner.
William Hill and Ladbrokes, which each have more than 2,000 stores, are restricted by U.K. competition rules on the number of outlets they can add, according to Davy's Jennings.
``Paddy Power are the only listed retail growth story right now in the U.K.'' gambling market, said Jennings. If Paddy Power ``can couple that top-line growth with improved operational performance, it could make a meaningful contribution to earnings growth.''
Jennings said he expects Paddy Power's earnings from U.K. betting shops to rise to 2.7 million euros in 2009 and to 7.2 million euros in 2010 from about 1.6 million euros this year.
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发表于 2008-8-27 08:21
